Statistics Seminar（2014-07）

Topic:Modeling China's Business-Cycle in a Data Rich Environment

Speaker:Zhihong Chen, University of International Business and Economics

Time:Thursday, 27 March, 14:00-15:00

Location:Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract:China’s rapid growth has attracted worldwide attentions. However, China’s economy started slowing down since March 2011. Dating business cycle has become increasingly important. In a data rich environment, this paper firstly defines China’s business cycle into three phases. Then it applies an original ordered-probit framework, using dynamic factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables as forecasters, to forecast the probability of phases switching. It also discusses how to ascertain the economy-wide turning points.

About the speaker:陈志鸿，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院数量经济学系教授。陈教授于南开大学数学学院获得概率论与数理统计学士学位，美国波士顿学院获得经济学硕士和博士学位。研究领域为计量经济学，目前的研究兴趣包括因子模型的理论及其在宏观预测中的应用，需求系统的估计以及相关的福利问题等。陈教授已经在包括《Journal of Econometrics》，《Canadian Journal of Economics》等学术期刊发表论文10篇，并主持国家自然科学基金，教育部新世纪人才等研究课题。